Evaluating the Validity of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification Score to Discriminate Illness Severity and Level of Care Transitions in Hospitalized Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the validity of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification (RISQ) score to discriminate illness severity and transitions between levels of care during hospitalization. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective observational study conducted in Maiduguri, Nigeria, enrolled inpatients aged 1-59 months with severe acute malnutrition. The primary outcome was the RISQ score associated with the patient state. Heart and respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory effort, oxygen use, temperature, and level of consciousness are summed to calculate the RISQ score. Five states were defined by levels of care and hospital discharge outcome. The states were classified hierarchically, reflecting illness severity: hospital mortality was the most severe state, then intensive care unit (ICU), care in the stabilization phase (SP), care in the rehabilitation phase (RP), and lowest severity, survival at hospital discharge. A multistate statistical model examined performance of the RISQ score in predicting clinical states and transitions. RESULTS: Of 903 children enrolled (mean age, 14.6 months), 63 (7%) died. Mean RISQ scores during care in each phase were 3.5 (n = 2265) in the ICU, 1.7 (n = 6301) in the SP, and 1.5 (n = 2377) in the RP. Mean scores and HRs for a 3-point change in score at transitions: ICU to death, 6.9 (HR, 1.80); SP to ICU, 2.8 (HR, 2.00); ICU to SP, 2.0 (HR, 0.5); and RP to discharge, 1.4 (HR, 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The RISQ score can discriminate between points of escalation or de-escalation of care and reflects illness severity in hospitalized children with severe acute malnutrition. Evaluation of clinical implementation and demonstration of benefit will be important before widespread adoption.

Development and an initial validation of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification (RISQ) score for severely malnourished children.

AIM: To develop and perform an initial validation of a score to measure the severity of illness in hospitalised children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM). METHODS: A prospective study enrolled SAM children aged 6-59 months hospitalised in Borno State, Nigeria. Candidate items associated with inpatient mortality were combined and evaluated as candidate scores. Clinical and statistical methods were used to identify a preferred score. RESULTS: The 513 children enrolled had a mean age of 15.6 months of whom 48 (9%) died. Seven of the 10 evaluated items were significantly associated with mortality. Five different candidate scores were tested. The final score, Responses to Illness Severity Quantification (RISQ), included seven items: heart rate, respiratory rate, respiratory effort, oxygen saturation, oxygen delivery, temperature and level of consciousness. The mean RISQ score on admission was 2.6 in hospital survivors and 7.3 for children dying <48 h. RISQ scores <24 h before death had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.93. The RISQ score performed similarly across differing clinical conditions with AUROCs 0.77-0.98 for all conditions except oedema. CONCLUSION: The RISQ score can identify high-risk malnourished children at and during hospital admission. Clinical application may help prioritise care and potentially improve survival.

Recovery and relapse from severe acute malnutrition after treatment: a prospective, observational cohort trial in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: Millions of children suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in low- and middle- income countries. Much is known about the effectiveness of community treatment programmes (CMAM) but little is known about post-discharge outcomes after successful treatment. The present study aimed to evaluate post-discharge outcomes of children cured of SAM. DESIGN: Prospective, observational cohort study. Children with SAM who were discharged as cured were followed monthly for 6 months or until they experienced relapse to SAM. 'Cure' was defined as a child achieving a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of ≥115 mm with ≥15 % weight gain after loss of oedema. Relapse was defined as a child with MUAC<115 mm and/or oedema at any monthly visit. SETTING: Save the Children CMAM programme in Swabi, Pakistan, from January 2012 to December 2014. SUBJECTS: Children aged 6-59 months (n 117) discharged as cured from the CMAM programme were eligible for the study and followed for 6 months. RESULTS: One hundred children (92·6 %) remained free of SAM, eight (7·4 %) relapsed to SAM, nine (8·3 %) were lost to follow-up and none died. Most relapses occurred within 3 months of discharge (mean time to relapse 73·4 (sd 36·2) d). At enrolment, 90 % had moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and 10 % were not malnourished. By the end of 6 months, 35 % persisted with MAM and the remaining were not malnourished. CONCLUSIONS: In rural Pakistan, fewer than 10 % of children cured of SAM relapsed. The first 3 months is the most vulnerable time.

Improving estimates of the burden of severe acute malnutrition and predictions of caseload for programs treating severe acute malnutrition: experiences from Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The burden of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is estimated using unadjusted prevalence estimates. SAM is an acute condition and many children with SAM will either recover or die within a few weeks. Estimating SAM burden using unadjusted prevalence estimates results in significant underestimation. This has a negative impact on allocation of resources for the prevention and treatment of SAM. A simple method for adjusting prevalence estimates intended to improve the accuracy of burden estimates and caseload predictions has been proposed. This method employs an incidence correction factor. Application of this method using the globally recommended incidence correction factor has led to programs underestimating burden and caseload in some settings. METHODS: A method for estimating a locally appropriate incidence correction factor from prevalence, population size, program caseload, and program coverage was developed and tested using data from the Nigerian national SAM treatment program. RESULTS: Applying the developed method resulted in errors in caseload prediction of about 10%. This is a considerable improvement upon the current method, which resulted in a 79.5% underestimate. Methods for improving the precision of estimates are proposed. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to considerably improve predictions of caseload by applying a simple model to data that are readily available to program managers. This implies that more accurate estimates of burden may also be made using the same methods and data.

Using cross-sectional surveys to estimate the number of severely malnourished children needing to be enrolled in specific treatment programmes.

OBJECTIVE: When planning severe acute malnutrition (SAM) treatment services, estimates of the number of children requiring treatment are needed. Prevalence surveys, used with population estimates, can directly estimate the number of prevalent cases but not the number of subsequent incident cases. Health managers often use a prevalence-to-incidence conversion factor (J) derived from two African cohort studies to estimate incidence and add the expected number of incident cases to prevalent cases to estimate expected SAM caseload for a given period. The present study aimed to estimate J empirically in different contexts. DESIGN: Observational study, with J estimated by correlating expected numbers of children to be treated, based on prevalence surveys, population estimates and assumed coverage, with the observed numbers of SAM patients treated. SETTING: Survey and programme data from six African and Asian countries. SUBJECTS: Twenty-four data sets including prevalence surveys and programme admissions data for 5 months following the survey. RESULTS: A statistically significant relationship between the number of SAM cases admitted to SAM treatment services and the estimated burden of SAM from prevalence surveys was found. Estimate for the slope (intercept forced to be zero) was 2·17 (95 % CI 1·33, 3·79). Estimates for the prevalence-to-incidence conversion factor J varied from 2·81 to 11·21, assuming programme coverage of 100 % and 38 %, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Estimation of expected caseload from prevalence may require revision of the currently used prevalence-to-incidence conversion factor J of 1·6. Appropriate values for J may vary between different locations.

Safety and practicability of using mid-upper arm circumference as a discharge criterion in community based management of severe acute malnutrition in children aged 6 to 59 months programmes.

BACKGROUND: The use of proportional weight gain as a discharge criterion for MUAC admissions to programs treating severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is no longer recommended by WHO. The critical limitation with the proportional weight gain criterion was that children who are most severely malnourished tended to receive shorter treatment compared to less severely malnourished children. Studies have shown that using a discharge criterion of MUAC ≥ 125 mm eliminates this problem but concerns remain over the duration of treatment required to reach this criterion and whether this discharge criterion is safe. This study assessed the safety and practicability of using MUAC ≥ 125 mm as a discharge criterion for community based management of SAM in children aged 6 to 59 months. METHODS: A standards-based trial was undertaken in health facilities for the outpatient treatment of SAM in Lilongwe District, Malawi. 258 children aged 6 to 51 months were enrolled with uncomplicated SAM as defined by a MUAC equal or less than 115 mm without serious medical complications. Children were discharged from treatment as 'cured' when they achieved a MUAC of 125 mm or greater for two consecutive visits. After discharge, children were followed-up at home every two weeks for three months. RESULTS: This study confirms that a MUAC discharge criterion of 125 mm or greater is a safe discharge criterion and is associated with low levels of relapse to SAM (1.9 %) and mortality (1.3 %) with long durations of treatment seen only in the most severe SAM cases. The proportion of children experiencing a negative outcome was 3.2 % and significantly below the 10 % standard (p = 0.0013) established for the study. All children with negative outcomes had achieved weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) above -1 z-scores at discharge. Children admitted with lower MUAC had higher proportional weight gains (p < 0.001) and longer lengths of stay (p < 0.0001). MUAC at admission and attendance were both independently associated with cure (p < 0.0001). There was no association with negative outcomes at three months post discharge for children with heights at admission below 65 cm than for taller children (p = 0.5798). CONCLUSIONS: These results are consistent with MUAC ≥ 125 mm for two consecutive visits being a safe and practicable discharge criterion. Use of a MUAC threshold of 125 mm for discharge achieves reasonable lengths of stay and was also found to be appropriate for children aged six months or older who are less than 65 cm in height at admission. Early detection and recruitment of SAM cases using MUAC in the community and compliance with the CMAM treatment protocols should reduce lengths of stay and associated treatment costs.

Using mid-upper arm circumference to end treatment of severe acute malnutrition leads to higher weight gains in the most malnourished children.

OBJECTIVE: The World Health Organization recommends discharging children admitted to nutrition programs treating severe acute malnutrition, with a low mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC <115 mm) when weight gain is >15%. When this recommendation is followed, the most severely malnourished children receive a shorter treatment compared to children that are less severely malnourished. This study assesses whether using MUAC >125 mm as discharge criteria eliminates this effect. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data from 753 children cured from a Médecins Sans Frontières outpatient nutrition program in Gedaref, North Sudan were analyzed. MUAC >125 mm was used as discharge criteria. Length of stay and percent weight gain of children were compared in relation to nutritional status on admission. Children with low MUAC on admission had a longer duration of treatment (p = 0.000) and also a higher percent weight gain (p = 0.000) than children with higher MUAC. Similar results with weight-for-height z-scores categories were shown with both duration of treatment (p = 0.000) and percent weight gain (p = 0.000). CONCLUSION: This study shows that using MUAC as the discharge criteria eliminates the effect of shorter treatment in most severely malnourished children compared to least severely malnourished, as is observed with percent weight gain. The findings directly address the main concern that has been identified with the current WHO recommendation of using percent weight gain. MUAC could be used as discharge criteria, instead of percent weight gain, as having a longer duration of treatment and a higher percent weight gain for the most malnourished is highly desirable.

Assessment of the PROBIT approach for estimating the prevalence of global, moderate and severe acute malnutrition from population surveys.

OBJECTIVE: Prevalence of acute malnutrition is classically estimated by the proportion of children meeting a case definition in a representative population sample. In 1995 the WHO proposed the PROBIT method, based on converting parameters of a normally distributed variable to cumulative probability, as an alternative method requiring a smaller sample size. The present study compares classical and PROBIT methods for estimating the prevalence of global, moderate and severe acute malnutrition (GAM, MAM and SAM) defined by weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) or mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). DESIGN: Bias and precision of classical and PROBIT methods were compared by simulating a total of 1·26 million surveys generated from 560 nutrition surveys. SETTING: Data used for simulation were derived from nutritional surveys of children aged 6-59 months carried out in thirty-one countries around the world. SUBJECTS: Data of 459 036 children aged 6-59 months from representative samples were used to generate simulated populations. RESULTS: The PROBIT method provided an estimate of GAM, MAM and SAM using WHZ or MUAC proportional to the true prevalence with a small systematic overestimation. The PROBIT method was more precise than the classical method for estimating the prevalence for GAM, MAM and SAM by WHZ or MUAC for small sample sizes (i.e. n<150 for SAM and GAM; n<300 for MAM), but lost this advantage when sample sizes increased. CONCLUSIONS: The classical method is preferred for estimating acute malnutrition prevalence from large sample surveys. The PROBIT method may be useful in sentinel-site surveillance systems with small sample sizes.

Comparison of the new World Health Organization growth standards and the National Center for Health Statistics growth reference regarding mortality of malnourished children treated in a 2006 nutrition program in Niger.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) international growth reference with the new World Health Organization (WHO) growth standards for identification of the malnourished (wasted) children most at risk of death. DESIGN: Retrospective data analysis. SETTING: A Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) nutrition program in Maradi, Niger, in 2006 that treated moderately and severely malnourished children. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 53 661 wasted children aged 6 months to 5 years (272 of whom died) in the program were included. INTERVENTIONS: EpiNut (Epi Info 6.0; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia) software was used to calculate the percentage of the median for the NCHS reference group, and the WHO (igrowup macro; Geneva, Switzerland) software was used to calculate z scores for the WHO standards group of the 53 661 wasted children. OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures are the difference in classification of children as either moderate or severely malnourished according to the NCHS growth reference and the new WHO growth standards, specifically focusing on children who died during the program. RESULTS: Of the children classified as moderately wasted using the NCHS reference, 37% would have been classified as severely wasted according to the new WHO growth standards. These children were almost 3 times more likely to die than those classified as moderately wasted by both references, and deaths in this group constituted 47% of all deaths in the program. CONCLUSIONS: The new WHO growth standards identifies more children as severely wasted compared with the NCHS growth reference, including children at high mortality risk who would potentially otherwise be excluded from some therapeutic feeding programs.